The Oscars: Who Will Win, Who Should Win, Who Should Have Been Here
Ellie Wells ’18 / Emertainment Monthly Staff Writer
The first Academy Awards took place in 1927, in a fifteen minute, private ceremony. The winners had already been announced three months before. It’s a far cry from the annual three and a half hour televised spectacle we associate the Academy Awards with today. Meant to celebrate the best of filmmaking, the signature gold statuettes are given out in twenty-four different categories. To even be nominated is to be recognized with the most prestigious award in all of filmmaking.
Still, the homogeneity of the most recent nominees is only the latest in a long line of controversies that the Academy has attracted. Although in its history the Academy has given awards to deserving people, it has often overlooked nominees whose films have stood the test of time. And that doesn’t even touch on those that don’t even receive nominations; Anthony Perkins’ portrayal of Norman Bates in Psycho comes to mind.
The 87th Academy Awards will air on February 22nd. Voting on these nominees technically begins on February 6th and ends on the 17th, but different factors over the years have made the winners relatively easy to predict. And while there are always surprises, the ceremony itself passes each year without much suspense.
But are the projected winners this year deserving? It’s always difficult to say because film is such a subjective medium. The voting process of Academy members is a story for another day, but here I attempt to predict who I think will win, and who deserves to win.
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Who Will Win: Boyhood
Who Should Win: Birdman
Should Have Been Here: Gone Girl
Richard Linklater’s twelve year epic resonated deeply with both audiences and critics alike, and due to the originality and scope it seems likely that the Academy will give it the top prize. However, a major threat is Birdman, which so artfully examined the state of Hollywood today, and the Academy always enjoys honoring films about itself. But Gone Girl was so powerfully told and constructed, with its story and characters evoking classic thrillers of yesteryear, that its presence in this category is painfully missing.
Best Director
Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher
Alejandro Inarritu – Birdman
Mortem Tyldum – The Imitation Game
Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Who Will Win: Richard Linklater
Who Should Win: Richard Linklater
Should Have Been Here: Ava DuVernay
Boyhood was a tremendous feat that could have easily fallen apart at so many different turns. But Richard Linklater kept it going, and eventually realized the project into an impressive final film, and thus deserves the top honor. However, Ava DuVernay told the story of one of our greatest public figures in such a moving and powerful way that it’s a shame her work was not recognized with at least a nomination.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper — American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch — The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton — Birdman
Eddie Redmayne — The Theory of Everything
Who Will Win: Michael Keaton
Who Should Win: Eddie Redmayne
Should Have Been Here: Jake Gyllenhaal
Michael Keaton was good as Riggan Thompson, a former superhero star who attempts to put on a serious play, but Eddie Redmayne was fully transformative as Stephen Hawking. He leaves his previous roles, namely as pretty boy Marius in Les Miserables behind and showcases his tremendous range as an actor. But Jake Gyllenhaal truly gave the best performance of the year in Nightcrawler. He’s unsettling and disturbing in the most captivating way possible.
Best Actress
Felicity Jones — The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore — Still Alice
Rosamund Pike — Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon — Wild
Who Will Win: Julianne Moore
Who Should Win: Rosamund Pike
Should Have Been Here: Amy Adams
Julianne Moore’s performance as a woman stricken with early-onset Alzheimer’s has been widely lauded. Considering she has already taken home the prize at the Golden Globes and Critic’s Choice among many other award shows, it seems likely that she will continue the streak, especially since the Academy will probably want to recognize her long and successful career (she’s received four nominations but no wins). However, Rosamund Pike’s performance as the titular character of Gone Girl was so perfectly realized, her presence on screen so captivating that it’s hard not to imagine it being talked about and analyzed for years to come.
Best Supporting Actor
Ethan Hawke — Boyhood
Edward Norton — Birdman
Mark Ruffalo — Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons — Whiplash
Who Will Win: J.K. Simmons
Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons
Should Have Been Here: Logan Lerman
J.K. Simmons is absolutely enthralling in his turn as an emotionally abusive music theater, and wholeheartedly deserves all of the recognition he has thus far attained. Few saw Fury and those that did were mostly left cold, but Logan Lerman is terrific as a new recruit in the final weeks of World War II. His character provides the emotional core to the film, and his performance proves that he has come a long way since the Percy Jackson franchise.
Best Supporting Actress
Emma Stone — Birdman
Keira Knightley — The Imitation Game
Laura Dern — Wild
Meryl Streep — Into the Woods
Will Win: Patricia Arquette
Should Win: Emma Stone
Should Have Been Here: Jessica Chastain
Patricia Arquette does a fine job as a hardworking single mother, but was eclipsed by Ethan Hawke through his three-dimensional characterization of a role that, in the hands of any other actor, might have been one note. Emma Stone’s turn as a recovering drug addict and Riggan’s daughter is immensely captivating. Through her performance, we empathize with he, we see the complexity to someone who is, on the surface, a spoiled brat. And Jessica Chastain was very good in A Most Violent Year, but it’s too bad there was not another spot for her.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Inherent Vice
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Will Win: The Imitation Game
Should Win: Whiplash
Should Have Been Here: Gone Girl
With Whiplash qualifying for adapted screenplay rather than original (director Damien Chazelle developed his feature from a short of the same name), things were thrown off. Paul Thomas Anderson’s muddled and confusing Inherent Vice somehow made it in, and Gone Girl was inexplicably left out, all the more shocking considering its screenplay was Gillian Flynn’s first attempt at the form. It seems likely that the Academy will acknowledge The Imitation Game here, since its script has all the workings of a traditional Academy-friendly film. Whiplash is a visceral look at what it takes to pursue a career in the arts, and it is truly one of the most thought provoking and complex films of the year.
Best Original Screenplay
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Will Win: Birdman
Should Win: Birdman
Should Have Been Here: A Most Violent Year
Birdman deservedly took home the Golden Globe for best screenplay, and upon examining the writing there is an impressive amount of depth to not only the story and the characters. But J.C. Chandor’s A Most Violent Year had similar depth, and it’s a shame not to see it recognized.
Having just seen Still Alice on Monday, I will agree that Julianne Moore delivered a powerful performance that, for my money, helped elevate the film’s pretty basic story. As much as I loved Pike, Witherspoon and Jones (haven’t seen Two Days, One Night), it seems like Moore has the momentum. And Emma Stone was great in Birdman, but it feels like her best scene IS the Oscar Moment where she chews out her father.