Final Predictions For The 87th Academy Awards

Beau Salant ‘18 and James Canellos ‘17 / Emertainment Monthly Staff Writers
The Oscar balloting deadline has passed, the winners are set in stone, and the ceremony is only a day away! So here are our final predictions for who will take this year’s Academy Awards!

Best Picture

The Nominees:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Will win: Birdman

Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Dark horse: Boyhood

Early on, Boyhood had all of the momentum with wins from all of the major critic group’s awards and also from the Golden Globes. But things began to shift in Birdman’s favor when that film won all three of the major awards from the major guilds: the Producers’ Guild, the Screen Actors’ Guild and the Directors’ Guild. The only film to ever win at all three guilds and not go on to win Best Picture was Apollo 13, which lost the Oscar to Braveheart back in 1995. So while Boyhood could still give it some trouble, it’s looking like Birdman is going to soar on Oscar night.

Best Director

The Nominees:
Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu – Birdman
Richard Linklater – Boyhood
Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game

Will win: Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu

Should win: Wes Anderson

Dark horse: Richard Linklater

This category is a massive toss-up, with both Iñárritu and Linklater poised as strong contenders to win. Since this race is so close, we are going by the old rule of thumb that says that Best Director almost always goes to the director of the Best Picture winner. While this was not true last year when 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture and Alfonso Cuaron took Best Director for Gravity, it is still true more often than not. So look for Iñárritu to take this one home, even though Linklater is nipping at his heels.

Best Actor

The Nominees:
Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton – Birdman
Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything

Will win: Michael Keaton

Should win: Michael Keaton

Dark horse: Bradley Cooper

While the majority of the awards leading up to the Oscars have awarded Eddie Redmayne for his turn as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything, Oscar voters are more likely to side with Michael Keaton who seems to have everything going for him: a major career comeback with a critically acclaimed performance in the Best Picture frontrunner. Perhaps most importantly, this is Keaton’s first nomination despite a career spanning over three decades, so many voters could see this as an opportunity to finally give Keaton his due. But watch out for Bradley Cooper! This is his third consecutive nomination in three years (he was nominated last year for American Hustle and the year before for Silver Linings Playbook), which indicates immense respect from the Academy, and American Sniper is a huge box office hit and was surprisingly successful with Oscar voters as well, earning six nominations. If there’s a surprise winner on Sunday night, it could very well be him.

Best Actress

The Nominees:
Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore – Still Alice
Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Will win: Julianne Moore

Should win: Julianne Moore

Dark horse: None.

Rosamund Pike’s chilling breakout role in Gone Girl would make a strong winner, but the Academy seemed to respond negatively to that film overall, so the path is clear for Julianne Moore to finally take home her long overdue Oscar. There isn’t much wiggle room here. Moore has taken home nearly every precursor award for her role as a college professor with early-onset Alzheimer’s disease, so no second-place contender has truly emerged. Hollywood is rallying for Moore, whose film career has warranted two to three Oscars by now, to finally win and the stars are aligning to make it happen.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees:
Robert Duvall – The Judge
Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
Edward Norton – Birdman
Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons – Whiplash

Will win: J.K. Simmons

Should win: J.K. Simmons

Dark horse: Edward Norton

Veteran character actor J.K. Simmons will win his first Oscar on Sunday night. His role as the abusive teacher in Whiplash finally gave him a character large enough for him to show his full ability in after years of playing important but small characters in films ranging from indies like Juno to big-budget superhero films like Spider-Man. He is the very definition of an actor who has paid his dues, and is finally getting rewarded for it in a huge way. In the unlikely scenario that Simmons doesn’t win, Edward Norton would be the most likely benefactor as he gave an acclaimed turn in the Best Picture frontrunner and many see this performance as a return to form for a once-promising actor who fell off the radar for a while. But Norton will likely have to wait a little longer, since the odds of Simmons losing are slim.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees:
Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
Laura Dern – Wild
Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
Emma Stone – Birdman
Meryl Streep – Into the Woods

Will win: Patricia Arquette

Should win: Patricia Arquette

Dark horse: Emma Stone

You might as well rename this category “Best Supporting Arquette.” With her closest competitor, Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year, surprisingly snubbed, there’s nothing standing in the way of Patricia Arquette and that Oscar come Sunday night. Arquette’s performance was one of the most praised aspects of Boyhood, and with that film now poised to miss out on the Best Picture award, voters now see this category as a safe place to ensure that Boyhood goes home with at least one Oscar. Emma Stone; however, can not be counted out. The mega-star, hot off of her acclaimed Broadway run in Cabaret, made a huge splash in Birdman and is sure to get some votes. But she most likely won’t get enough to topple Arquette, who has pretty much had the Oscar locked up since the day that Boyhood was first screened.

Best Original Screenplay

 
The Nominees:
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Dark horse: Birdman

In a surprisingly competitive year for this usually boring category, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel have evenly split the precursor awards, with Birdman winning at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards while Budapest won the prize at the BAFTA and Writer’s Guild of America Awards. The reason we give Budapest the edge is because Birdman has four credited screenwriters nominated for the award as opposed to Budapest’s two. The last time four or more screenwriters won an Oscar for the same screenplay was in 1959, so history is not on Birdman’s side here. But this category remains a toss-up, and either one could win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees:
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Will win: The Imitation Game

Should win: Whiplash

Dark horse: Whiplash

The shocking snub of Gone Girl has left this category without a frontrunner. The Imitation Game has a weak lead after winning the Writers’ Guild Award, but Whiplash, an original screenplay forced to compete in the adapted category due to a technicality, has some momentum going and could take this award as well. But really any of the nominees could win, as this category is completely up in the air.